EAEU and Serbia – Mutually Beneficial Cooperation

Hits: 1013

On the 30th September 2016, formal negotiations related to the creation of free trade zone between Serbia and Eurasian Economic Union started. Lasting throughout the entire 2017, indications of progress were given by Marko Čadež, president of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, during his participation in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). This new free trade agreement is supposed to replace older bilateral FTAs which Serbia has with Russian Federation, Belarus, and Kazakhstan and expand the market for its products to Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.

Vietnam is an illustrative example of benefits which free trade agreement with EAEU can bring. Free Trade Agreement between the EAEU countries and Vietnam entered into force on October 5, 2016. Ten months later, exports of goods from the Union countries to Vietnam increased by 32% compared to the same period in 2015-2016. Supplies of Vietnamese products to the markets of the EAEU grew by 28%. Given that EAEU is involved in negotiations with other countries, such as India, Singapore, Israel and Iran, Belgrade cooperation with the Eurasian block has potential to lead to the stronger establishment of Serbian merchandise and companies in the fast-growing markets of ASEAN and other Asian countries. Furthermore, once achieved, agreement with EAEU will provide Serbian firms with a venue for joint enterprises with companies from the Union, in a similar fashion to those from Vietnam.

In 2016, Russian International Affairs Council published a paper regarding free trade zone between Serbia and EAEU.This document offers three possible scenarios of development. In the first one, Serbia follows a one-sided European vector of development and refuses FTA with the EAEU. The second scenario is the one in which Serbia and Eurasian Economic Union are temporary allies. Serbia will conclude an agreement FTA with the Eurasian block and extract dividends from this agreement, until the moment to join the EU comes. After joining the EU, Eurasian integration will lose its importance.A third scenario, and the most optimistic one for Serbia, envisions the country as a bridge between Europe and Eurasia. This scenario provides Serbia with conditions for diverse multilateral cooperationwith both European and Asian countries and political blocks, while proving beneficial for not only the country’s economic considerations but security ones as well.

Questionable Path of the EU accession

In contrast to possibilities presented by FTA with EAEU, the process of Serbia accession to EU, especially Chapter 30 which details the foreign affairs obligations, seems to have a more crippling then positive effect on Serbia. According to a statementbyForum of Economists analyst, BorislavBorović, to media outlet Sputnik,Serbia remains one of few countries without cost-benefit analysis of its accession to EU and, thus, is unaware of expenses, gains and costsresulting from this process. In light of this fact, the possibility that Serbia might be better offoutside the EU remains a valid point. What is known, however, is that Serbia, upon closure of Chapter 30, will be forced to withdraw from all free trade agreementsit’s currently engaged in, such as CEFTA, FTAs with Russia, Turkey, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Only FTA remaining will be the one with EU.

Another important issue related to Chapter 30 is the question of sanctions against Russia. Serbia is one of few countries in Europe which did not introduce sanctions to Russian Federation in 2014.The current stance of Serbia in this regard has very strong popular support and proved beneficial for Serbia in terms of trade and economy. That would have to change if Belgrade is to conclude negotiations with the EU or even close the chapter in questions. All conditions from this part of the accession negotiations are not in the interest of Serbia given that they, if implemented, will have negative economic and political consequences. Report for 2016, made by the Republic Statistics Institute, indicates that 64,4% of total Serbian economic exchange is with the EU members, while the remaining percentage is mostly with other partners Serbia has FTAs with.If we take these facts into consideration,negative effects for Serbian economy seem inevitable. For long-term prospects, it is questionable is further integration into EU economic system beneficial for Serbia given such course of action would only cause larger dependence on EU, thus decreasing diplomatic maneuvering space and jeopardizing economic and political security and sovereignty of Serbia. Diversification of its export and import partners, which would lead to reducedeffectiveness of possible political pressure, is in the best interest of Serbia.

European Union, true to an often displayed policy of double standards, has for several years insisted, especially in theenergy sector, on diversification of partners, but would remove the same option for Belgrade. Furthermore, Germany, the most important EU member state, has no qualms about cooperating with Russia within „Nord Stream“ project.This example illustrates that even member countries within EU take notice of their own interests and act accordingly. Serbia should follow suit. Another important issue is the future of the EU itself in light of Brexitand socio-political changes Europe is currently experiencing. It is questionable how prudent is it to insist upon political goal, now almost twenty years old, in the rapidly changing international community.

Public Opinion

Survey of public opinion in Serbia, from 2015, has shown a clear decline in support for European integrations, on one side, and rising support for cooperation with Russia, and other Asian countries, on the other. Percentage of those who supported EU integrations dropped from 76% in 2009 to 49% in 2015 while those who refused such processes rose from 19% to 44% in the same period. Interestingly enough, 35% of those who would vote against EU accession express their “lack of belief in values EU integration brings”, 20% are “fed up with pressure Serbia endures in order to enter EU” while 32% cite examples of “Greece and Spain as evidence that EU membership will not bring anything good” to Serbia. Unlike EAEU, European Union is not only economic block but also a political and ideological project which disregards national particularities and traditions of those who would join.

Survey touched upon the issue of Kosovo and Metohija itself. In a case where Serbia is required to recognize Kosovo, 57% of those questioned responded that Serbia should refuse to accept even if it meant staying out of EU.94% of those questioned expressed an opinion that interests of Serbia are best served by maintaining strong relations with Russia. China comes in second place, with 89%, while Germany is third with 80%.

Forced to choose just one country, Russia, with 63%, was again the most favorable partner for those questioned.

From results of the survey in question, several trends are apparent. One of them is, by now, traditional popular support for cooperation with Russian Federation and organizations it leads such as EAEU and CSTO. The second trend is growing Euroscepticism within Serbian society. This is not so much a result of EU economic policies, as of objectiveness lacking approach to issues of nation, justice, society and politics in the Balkans since the disappearance of Yugoslavia.

Conclusion

The sovereignty of Serbia and security of Serbian people, especially those living in the occupied province of Kosovo and Metohija are political issues underlining the economic narrative of joining either EU or EAEU. Stark divide in positions regarding this question is noticeable between EU on one side, and Russia and China at the other.Projections indicate Serbia might become EU member by 2025 or even 2030. As Serbia moves ever closer to eventual membership in European Union, it remains unknown what will be the cost of such decision and is such political move beneficial for Serbian state. Will Serbia be forced to recognize Kosovo and allow its access to UN? On 21st January, French ambassador in Serbia, Mondoloni, reiterated that there can be no integration within EU without, how he euphemistically called it, agreement on Kosovo.  Serbian population is strongly against it given that direct or indirect, forced or otherwise, recognition of Kosovo by Serbia would legitimize NATO aggression against Yugoslavia in 1999.

However, it is now clear that European Union is not the only supranational project anymore.

As organizations such as EAEU increase their activism, offering economic cooperation without ideological and political baggage, EU might find itself in a position of an outdated concept burdened by a complicated set of laws and power struggle between the supranational EU institutions and national governments.Examples of this struggle are already apparent in the dispute over issue of migrants between Višegrad Group and Brussels and over the issue of judicial reforms between Brussels and Poland. If faced with pressure from Brussels which undermines national interests, even members of the EU might seek more flexible alternatives.

Without losing from sight that every political actor has interests, it is clear which approach to cooperation is more beneficial for Serbia itself. While European Union seeks to integrate countries through a complex system of dependencies and supranational acquisition of national prerogatives, Eurasian Economic Union is focused on the economy and guided by the principle of the sovereign equality of states, the need for unconditional respect for the rule of constitutional rights and freedoms of man and national. Faced with its own particular set of challenges, it would be most prudent for Serbia to forgo any kind of permanent obligation, such as membership in EU, for the sake of more liberty in dealing with its own issues and the wider specter of possible partners on the international level.


Originally published on 2018-05-02

Author: Ljubiša Malenica

Source: Geopolitica

Read our Disclaimer/Legal Statement!

Donate to Support Us

We would like to ask you to consider a small donation to help our team keep working. We accept no advertising and rely only on you, our readers, to keep us digging the truth on history, global politics and international relations.

[wpedon id=”4696″ align=”left”]

READ MORE!
Raining on Trump’s Parade
Thankfully humanity is freed from the scourge of a third Hillary and Bill Clinton crime family co-presidency – she in the lead role with her finger on the nuclear trigger as US military commander-in-chief, perhaps eager to squeeze it.Newsweek magazine jumped the gun, printing a special edition, distributing it to outlets before November 8 – Hillary on the cover below the heading “MADAM PRESIDENT.”Shades of November 3, 1948, the Chicago Tribune headlining “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.” A beaming President HST held up a copy of the broadsheet, saying: “That ain’t the way I heard it!”Like polls predicted a Hillary victory this ...
READ MORE
The Power of the Internet in Politics
Future war “may see attacks via computer viruses, worms, logic bombs, and trojan horses rather than bullets, bombs, and missiles” [Steven Metz, Armed Conflict in the 21st Century: The Information Revolution and Post-Modern Warfare, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2000, xiii].First partThe facilities of the Internet in politicsThe Internet or the WWW (World Wide Web) became massively widespread around the globe since the late 1980s or more precisely since 1989 – in the same year when the Berlin Wall collapsed and, therefore, enabled the Cold War 1.0 to enter the final stage of its end. That is why both of these ...
READ MORE
Kosovo is not Serbia’s Kurdistan, but Balkan’s IS/Daesh
In the article “Kurdistan – Turkey’s Kosovo” Prof. Sotirović compared different aspects of Turkish Kurdistan case to the Kosovo one, found some parallels and pointed out Turkey’s hypocrisy.While Prof. Sotirović is right in his assessment that Turkey is hypocritical to say at least, he failed to expose the fundamental differences between Kurdistan and Kosovo. His article contains some inaccuracies, misinterpretations and lacks in detail. Such an imprecise comparison may lead a reader who is not familiar with Balkans to acquire a false impression. A reader might come to conclusion that Kosovo Albanians had experienced the same level of suffering and ...
READ MORE
Syrian Strikes are ‘Legal’ – But Only According to the ‘Law of the Jungle’
The full extent of the damage to international peace and security caused by the US-led Syrian strikes will take some time to become clear. But its impact on the very concept of legality in international affairs is already evident.Simply put, the most powerful county in the world and its chief satellites, the UK and France, have thrown the rule of law into the trash can. The only "law" now is the law of the jungle. There is no going back.Ironically, the attack itself was claimed by its perpetrators as enforcement of legality, not of its obliteration. For example, NATO Secretary-General ...
READ MORE
The Post-WWII Albania and Kosovo
Stalinist “Land of Eagles” As in neighboring Yugoslavia, the communist revolutionary guerrilla forces, established by the aid and crucially supported by the Yugoslav communists led by local Albanian communist leader Enver Hoxha, took over the power in Albania in 1944.[1] From 1945 to 1948 Albania was under the strong influence of Titoist Yugoslavia and both counties being under the hand of J. V. Stalin. Yugoslavia lavishly supplied Albania with deficient material, mainly nutritious ones, like wheat, etc. As testified by the Montenegrin zealot communist and revolutionist Milovan Đilas, one of the leading Yugoslav politicians at the time, and a member ...
READ MORE
The entrance-gate to the death camp of Jasenovac in Croatia
The so called "Croatian scenario", is something that has been periodically brought up after the start of the armed conflict in Donbass. (Among other instances, yours truly noted this in articles from this past December 17 and August 24, 2015.) Promoted at Johnson's Russia List, the December 28 Euromaidan Press article "What Ukraine Can Take from the 'Croatian Scenario' of Conflict Resolution", omits some key factors for being apprehensive about the probability for success of an Operation Storm like strike against the Donbass rebels.In 1995, the Serb Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic, had essentially dropped the Krajina Serbs, with the hope that he could improve his relationship with the West. At ...
READ MORE
The 9/11 Attacks: Understanding Al-Qaeda and the Domestic Fall-Out from America’s Secret War
With American military personnel now entering service who were not even alive on 9/11, this seems an appropriate time to reexamine the events of September 11, 2001 – the opaque motives for the attacks, the equally opaque motives for the counter-offensive by the United States and its allies known as the Global War on Terror, and the domestic fall-out for Americans concerned about the erosion of their civil liberties on the homefront.Before venturing further, it’s worth noting that our appraisal is not among the most common explanations. Osama bin Laden, his lieutenants at Al-Qaeda, and the men who carried out ...
READ MORE
Why can Hillary Clinton not be US president?
Like in Israel, US ruling elites plan for the future strategies and choose presidents to suit the needs. After using a Black President Obama to attack North Africans and Arab nations for their energy resources in order to ensure energy security of the superpower, now the US leaders seem to think of using a female President in the name of Hillary to advance US interests globally.Former US state secretary Hillary Clinton and associates are being pampered by those who are scared of any possible change in US foreign policy towards a possible thaw and neutrality in world affairs, notwithstanding what ...
READ MORE
Global Security, the United Nations Organization and the Role of the Security Council
Historical backgroundAfter the failure of the interwar League of Nations to prevent international crises and military conflicts of the 1930s which finally culminated in the next global war, the major Allied states (the USA, the USA, the UK, and China) agreed in Moscow in October 1943 to create a new, more functional, and improved international peace-keeping organization after the war under a new name of the United Nations Organization (the UNO). In other words, the UNO has evolved from a wining coalition of countries fighting against European Nazism and fascism in WWII. Following further negotiations at Dumbarton Oaks and Yalta, ...
READ MORE
Saudi Arab Islamist beheading Serbs in Bosnia in 1992
The conflict that raged throughout the former Yugoslavia was met by a wall of silence when it came to important issues. These important issues apply to America and the United Kingdom supporting Islamists in a brutal civil war in Bosnia and then installing a new nation by ignoring international law in Kosovo. Also, is it credible to believe that the vast majority of major news agencies and national governments did not know about thousands of Islamists in Europe who were sent to slit the throats and behead Orthodox Christians? After all, if the reality of what really happened in Bosnia and ...
READ MORE
Albanian Highlanders and Kosovo
South-East Serbia's province of Kosovo-Metochia (KosMet) is an autochthonous Slavic, in particular Serb, land. Now, the focal question became how this province became “disputed land”, and, in particular, what it has to do with ethnic-Albanians? In the following text, this issue is going to be considered in more details, from the geographical, (pre)historic, anthropologic, religious, and political points of view. We start with the geography, in particular, the physical geography of West Balkans.Kosovo Liberation Army, August 1998, Klechka village, KosMetThe region of Dinaric Alps It is known that physical and mental structures of a particular population are determined by many ...
READ MORE
A Curious Analogy – Coronavirus Misrepresentations Follow Srebrenica Script
As the contemporary Corona virus hysteria narrative continues to collapse (here and here) another dubious narrative, launched a quarter of a century ago – Srebrenica genocide – comes to mind. The common thread of both narratives is that they have just enough genuine elements to provide a seemingly plausible foundation for a vastly exaggerated tale. The Covid-19 virus can endanger health, and even be lethal, to certain classes of the population, but how much more than that is it? In Srebrenica in July of 1995, about a thousand Muslim prisoners were executed by a rogue outfit of the Serb army. ...
READ MORE
The Six Day War – Myth and Reality
The Six Day War of June 1967, a series of battles fought by the armed forces of the state of Israel against a combination of Arab armies, is one of manifold significance. From a military standpoint, it presented a model strategy of how to prosecute and win a war waged on several fronts.The stunning victory also created a sense of euphoria among communities in the Jewish Diaspora: Among American Jews, a segment of Jewry David Ben Gurion viewed with disdain because of their failure to migrate en masse to Israel, a new sense of commitment in both emotional and financial ...
READ MORE
Kosovo and Ongoing De-Christianization
The ongoing de-Christianization of Kosovo continues and unlike the past frenzy of the anti-Serbian mass media in the West, we mainly have a deadly silence about the reality of Kosovo and the continuing Albanianization of this land. However, how is it “just” and “moral” to persecute minorities and to alienate them from mainstream society; and then to illegally recognize this land without the full consensus of the international community?How ironic it is that the same United States of America and the United Kingdom, two nations who were in the forefront of covertly manipulating the mass media; remain mainly silent about ...
READ MORE
Democratic Shaking Hands with Kosovostan’s War Criminal
Only one example of traditional Western liberal democracy's support of the notorious war criminals, bandits, and gangsters:Origins of images: Facebook, Twitter, Wikimedia, Wikipedia, Flickr, Google, Imageinjection, Public Domain & Pinterest.Read our Disclaimer/Legal Statement!Donate to Support UsWe would like to ask you to consider a small donation to help our team keep working. We accept no advertising and rely only on you, our readers, to keep us digging the truth on history, global politics, and international relations.[wpedon id="4696" align="left"]Save
READ MORE
The CIA and a Greater Albania: The Origins of the US Role in the Balkans
Introduction: The Missing LinkWhy did the US support the separatist and terrorist so-called Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA, or UCK in Shqip), which sought to create an ethnically pure Albanian Kosovo based on ethnicity? Why did the US sponsor a criminal and illegal separatist movement that sought to ethnically cleanse non-Albanians and create an independent state of Kosova? Why was the US supporting and sponsoring the re-establishment of a fascist-Nazi Greater Albania that Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini had initially created?When did the US begin to play a role in Kosovo? Did the US role in Kosovo begin with the arming ...
READ MORE
“Greater Israel”: The Zionist Plan for the Middle East
This article was published on Global Research April 29, 2013.Global Research Editor’s Note:The following document pertaining to the formation of “Greater Israel” constitutes the cornerstone of powerful Zionist factions within the current Netanyahu government (which has recently been re-elected), the Likud party, as well as within the Israeli military and intelligence establishment.  The election was fought by Netanyahu on a political platform which denies Palestinian statehood.  According to the founding father of Zionism Theodore Herzl, “the area of the Jewish State stretches: “From the Brook of Egypt to the Euphrates.”  According to Rabbi Fischmann,  “The Promised Land extends from the River of Egypt ...
READ MORE
The Disaster That Bill Clinton Created in Bosnia by Backing Muslims Against the Serbs
Two decades later Bosnia is still suffering the consequences. ISIS has declared the Balkans the next front for the Islamic Caliphate, and in remote mountain villages, Muslims are already flying the ISIS flag.Central Bosnia in 2015Russia Insider (h/t Maksim)  The Balkans is the latest arena where the West is trying to circumcise any attempt of Russia to regainits influence. This anti-Serbian resolution and initiative is the part of the broader strategy and the latest Western attempt to demonize Serbs and delegitimize pro-Russian Republic of Srpska (Serbian part of Bosnia) in an effort to forcefully centralize Bosnia and give the driving seat to ...
READ MORE
Lithuania’s alleged involvement in Maidan contradicts supposed European values
New scandalous information about the 2014 Maidan coup d'état in Ukraine has emerged that implicates Lithuania’s important role in instigating the violent events. David Zhvania, a former Member of the Ukrainian Parliament, revealed on his YouTube channel that the seizure of power in Ukraine was financed in “several ways.”“One of the external sources was the Lithuanian embassy, ​​through which money and weapons were transferred, and the internal channel was Diamantbank. I have documented evidence to support my words,” said the former ally of Petro Poroshenko, the previous president of Ukraine.Zhvania called on Prosecutor General Irina Venediktova to initiate criminal proceedings ...
READ MORE
War On Identity – The Abuse Of Kosovo Toponym
Every now and then we are being bombed by some terms in order to get used to them and accept them as something regular, accurate and correct. Such a thing happened with the toponym of Kosovo.The same method was applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina, i.e with the toponym of Bosnia, which once was an Orthodox Christian medieval kingdom, meanwhile global media portrays it as it’s exclusively Bosnian Muslim land regardless the fact that history, old books speak differently. In that sense here are the facts easy to check:Encyclopedia Britannica, Edition 1971Reference: EB, Edition 1971, Volume 3, page 983, Entry: Bosnia, ...
READ MORE
Raining on Trump’s Parade
The Power of the Internet in Politics
Kosovo is not Serbia’s Kurdistan, but Balkan’s IS/Daesh
Syrian Strikes are ‘Legal’ – But Only According to the ‘Law of the Jungle’
The Post-WWII Albania and Kosovo
‘Croatian Scenario’ Shortcomings for Ending the Donbass Conflict
The 9/11 Attacks: Understanding Al-Qaeda and the Domestic Fall-Out from America’s Secret War
Why can Hillary Clinton not be US president?
Global Security, the United Nations Organization and the Role of the Security Council
Bosnia and Kosovo: Radical Islam, Organ Trafficking and Western Mainstream Media Bias
Albanian Highlanders and Kosovo
A Curious Analogy – Coronavirus Misrepresentations Follow Srebrenica Script
The Six Day War – Myth and Reality
Kosovo and Ongoing De-Christianization
Democratic Shaking Hands with Kosovostan’s War Criminal
The CIA and a Greater Albania: The Origins of the US Role in the Balkans
“Greater Israel”: The Zionist Plan for the Middle East
The Disaster That Bill Clinton Created in Bosnia by Backing Muslims Against the Serbs
Lithuania’s alleged involvement in Maidan contradicts supposed European values
War On Identity – The Abuse Of Kosovo Toponym

Written by Policraticus

SHORT LEGAL DISCLAIMER: The website’s owner & editor-in-chief has no official position on any issue published at this website. The views of the authors presented at this website do not necessarily coincide with the opinion of the owner & editor-in-chief of the website. The contents of all material (articles, books, photos, videos…) are of sole responsibility of the authors. The owner & editor-in-chief of this website is not morally, scientifically or legally responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect statement in the contents of all material found on this website. The owner & editor-in-chief of this website is not responsible for the content of external internet sites. No advertising, government or corporate funding for the functioning of this website. The owner & editor-in-chief and authors are not morally, scientifically or legally responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect statement in the text and material found on the website www.global-politics.eu

Website: http://www.global-politics.eu