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The forthcoming USA-Russian joint action against ISIS together with Iraqi-Syrian and Turkish military advance will soon neutralize ISIS possibilities to claim a stake of a statehood in the Levant region. Nonetheless, the number of radicalized persons in Europe is increasing as also the number of Jihadist fighters returning back into the EU-thus at first glance we should see a rise in the terrorism phenomenon in the coming years.
Furthermore the existence of multiple fronts where Jihadists are trained and fight nowadays such as :Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Sahel region, Nigeria, Sudan , Yemen, Sinai; brings us to the conclusion that we are likely witnessing an emergence of a serious threats that will engulf Europe for years to come. In simple terms terrorist attempts will continue.
Moreover, the immigration wave into the EU which spreads mainly via North Africa-Italy and/or Turkey-Balkans, along with a mass of people with no IDs, fake IDs or otherwise deceptive information. This is a crucial aspect and heightens Jihadist threat in the EU. It is roughly estimated that there are 300,000 people with either fake or incomplete id about them coming into the EU in the past 18 months. If we add in those the immigrants with similar features that had arrived in Europe previous years, plus the ongoing radicalization process in the 2nd and 3rd generation of Muslims in the EU, then we will likely face urban destabilization and terrorism whilst security agencies would barely able to cope with such challenges.
The challenges for the authorities are simple overwhelming and it is not simply possible to keep track of all suspects involved. France is estimated that it has a watch list of 10,000 suspects, with additional numbers for Germany, Italy or Netherlands. A 24/7 systematic surveillance of a terrorist suspect may require up to 30 state security operatives, thus making it impossible to cover the entire spectrum of the suspects involved.
Moreover the use of the so-called “double agents” has its own risks. There have been cases in France, Belgium, Denmark, UK and Netherlands in the past decade when double agents used, became renegade and also dealt with criminal activities, thus resulting in a “boomerang effect”. Recruiting a terrorist or an extremist is an extremely sensitive operation that has to be carefully sanctioned and monitored all the way through. Otherwise the “agent” acquires sensitive information around the modus opperandi of the state forces, plus training that could be used effectively against the state-as well as be able to perform disinformation activities and damage a wide range of operations. In simple words it’s a two-sided sword dealing with these people.
The menace of jihadism nowadays has a distinct characteristic that augments its lethal threat. It is relies on operatives willing to sacrifice their lives (suicide bombers) concurrently with an aim to attack against the so-called “soft targets”, which are basically all venues of public gatherings. Attacks in Berlin, Nice, Paris, Istanbul and Brussels have proven that these targets could be easily targeted and result in substantial civilian losses.
Subsequently they create mayhem in everyday life-thus breaking down the morale of the population, which is the actual agenda. They also have repercussions relating to the emergence of native population extremist factions and the society is bitterly divided. It is a matter of fact that security agencies can hardly cope and protect myriads of soft targets in the European urban sprawls. We should expect this trend to continue.
A further threat of this phenomenon is the spread of the so-called “lone wolves” and the ongoing radicalization of 2nd and 3rd generation Muslims in European countries. Radicalization within urban ghettos and the correctional facility system in the EU is also rampant. Until now the EU has failed to provide any practical guidance on how to deal with these issues. “Novel” ideals such educational on cou