EAEU and Serbia – Mutually Beneficial Cooperation

Hits: 942

On the 30th September 2016, formal negotiations related to the creation of free trade zone between Serbia and Eurasian Economic Union started. Lasting throughout the entire 2017, indications of progress were given by Marko Čadež, president of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, during his participation in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). This new free trade agreement is supposed to replace older bilateral FTAs which Serbia has with Russian Federation, Belarus, and Kazakhstan and expand the market for its products to Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.

Vietnam is an illustrative example of benefits which free trade agreement with EAEU can bring. Free Trade Agreement between the EAEU countries and Vietnam entered into force on October 5, 2016. Ten months later, exports of goods from the Union countries to Vietnam increased by 32% compared to the same period in 2015-2016. Supplies of Vietnamese products to the markets of the EAEU grew by 28%. Given that EAEU is involved in negotiations with other countries, such as India, Singapore, Israel and Iran, Belgrade cooperation with the Eurasian block has potential to lead to the stronger establishment of Serbian merchandise and companies in the fast-growing markets of ASEAN and other Asian countries. Furthermore, once achieved, agreement with EAEU will provide Serbian firms with a venue for joint enterprises with companies from the Union, in a similar fashion to those from Vietnam.

In 2016, Russian International Affairs Council published a paper regarding free trade zone between Serbia and EAEU.This document offers three possible scenarios of development. In the first one, Serbia follows a one-sided European vector of development and refuses FTA with the EAEU. The second scenario is the one in which Serbia and Eurasian Economic Union are temporary allies. Serbia will conclude an agreement FTA with the Eurasian block and extract dividends from this agreement, until the moment to join the EU comes. After joining the EU, Eurasian integration will lose its importance.A third scenario, and the most optimistic one for Serbia, envisions the country as a bridge between Europe and Eurasia. This scenario provides Serbia with conditions for diverse multilateral cooperationwith both European and Asian countries and political blocks, while proving beneficial for not only the country’s economic considerations but security ones as well.

Questionable Path of the EU accession

In contrast to possibilities presented by FTA with EAEU, the process of Serbia accession to EU, especially Chapter 30 which details the foreign affairs obligations, seems to have a more crippling then positive effect on Serbia. According to a statementbyForum of Economists analyst, BorislavBorović, to media outlet Sputnik,Serbia remains one of few countries without cost-benefit analysis of its accession to EU and, thus, is unaware of expenses, gains and costsresulting from this process. In light of this fact, the possibility that Serbia might be better offoutside the EU remains a valid point. What is known, however, is that Serbia, upon closure of Chapter 30, will be forced to withdraw from all free trade agreementsit’s currently engaged in, such as CEFTA, FTAs with Russia, Turkey, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Only FTA remaining will be the one with EU.

Another important issue related to Chapter 30 is the question of sanctions against Russia. Serbia is one of few countries in Europe which did not introduce sanctions to Russian Federation in 2014.The current stance of Serbia in this regard has very strong popular support and proved beneficial for Serbia in terms of trade and economy. That would have to change if Belgrade is to conclude negotiations with the EU or even close the chapter in questions. All conditions from this part of the accession negotiations are not in the interest of Serbia given that they, if implemented, will have negative economic and political consequences. Report for 2016, made by the Republic Statistics Institute, indicates that 64,4% of total Serbian economic exchange is with the EU members, while the remaining percentage is mostly with other partners Serbia has FTAs with.If we take these facts into consideration,negative effects for Serbian economy seem inevitable. For long-term prospects, it is questionable is further integration into EU economic system beneficial for Serbia given such course of action would only cause larger dependence on EU, thus decreasing diplomatic maneuvering space and jeopardizing economic and political security and sovereignty of Serbia. Diversification of its export and import partners, which would lead to reducedeffectiveness of possible political pressure, is in the best interest of Serbia.

European Union, true to an often displayed policy of double standards, has for several years insisted, especially in theenergy sector, on diversification of partners, but would remove the same option for Belgrade. Furthermore, Germany, the most important EU member state, has no qualms about cooperating with Russia within „Nord Stream“ project.This example illustrates that even member countries within EU take notice of their own interests and act accordingly. Serbia should follow suit. Another important issue is the future of the EU itself in light of Brexitand socio-political changes Europe is currently experiencing. It is questionable how prudent is it to insist upon political goal, now almost twenty years old, in the rapidly changing international community.

Public Opinion

Survey of public opinion in Serbia, from 2015, has shown a clear decline in support for European integrations, on one side, and rising support for cooperation with Russia, and other Asian countries, on the other. Percentage of those who supported EU integrations dropped from 76% in 2009 to 49% in 2015 while those who refused such processes rose from 19% to 44% in the same period. Interestingly enough, 35% of those who would vote against EU accession express their “lack of belief in values EU integration brings”, 20% are “fed up with pressure Serbia endures in order to enter EU” while 32% cite examples of “Greece and Spain as evidence that EU membership will not bring anything good” to Serbia. Unlike EAEU, European Union is not only economic block but also a political and ideological project which disregards national particularities and traditions of those who would join.

Survey touched upon the issue of Kosovo and Metohija itself. In a case where Serbia is required to recognize Kosovo, 57% of those questioned responded that Serbia should refuse to accept even if it meant staying out of EU.94% of those questioned expressed an opinion that interests of Serbia are best served by maintaining strong relations with Russia. China comes in second place, with 89%, while Germany is third with 80%.

Forced to choose just one country, Russia, with 63%, was again the most favorable partner for those questioned.

From results of the survey in question, several trends are apparent. One of them is, by now, traditional popular support for cooperation with Russian Federation and organizations it leads such as EAEU and CSTO. The second trend is growing Euroscepticism within Serbian society. This is not so much a result of EU economic policies, as of objectiveness lacking approach to issues of nation, justice, society and politics in the Balkans since the disappearance of Yugoslavia.

Conclusion

The sovereignty of Serbia and security of Serbian people, especially those living in the occupied province of Kosovo and Metohija are political issues underlining the economic narrative of joining either EU or EAEU. Stark divide in positions regarding this question is noticeable between EU on one side, and Russia and China at the other.Projections indicate Serbia might become EU member by 2025 or even 2030. As Serbia moves ever closer to eventual membership in European Union, it remains unknown what will be the cost of such decision and is such political move beneficial for Serbian state. Will Serbia be forced to recognize Kosovo and allow its access to UN? On 21st January, French ambassador in Serbia, Mondoloni, reiterated that there can be no integration within EU without, how he euphemistically called it, agreement on Kosovo.  Serbian population is strongly against it given that direct or indirect, forced or otherwise, recognition of Kosovo by Serbia would legitimize NATO aggression against Yugoslavia in 1999.

However, it is now clear that European Union is not the only supranational project anymore.

As organizations such as EAEU increase their activism, offering economic cooperation without ideological and political baggage, EU might find itself in a position of an outdated concept burdened by a complicated set of laws and power struggle between the supranational EU institutions and national governments.Examples of this struggle are already apparent in the dispute over issue of migrants between Višegrad Group and Brussels and over the issue of judicial reforms between Brussels and Poland. If faced with pressure from Brussels which undermines national interests, even members of the EU might seek more flexible alternatives.

Without losing from sight that every political actor has interests, it is clear which approach to cooperation is more beneficial for Serbia itself. While European Union seeks to integrate countries through a complex system of dependencies and supranational acquisition of national prerogatives, Eurasian Economic Union is focused on the economy and guided by the principle of the sovereign equality of states, the need for unconditional respect for the rule of constitutional rights and freedoms of man and national. Faced with its own particular set of challenges, it would be most prudent for Serbia to forgo any kind of permanent obligation, such as membership in EU, for the sake of more liberty in dealing with its own issues and the wider specter of possible partners on the international level.


Originally published on 2018-05-02

Author: Ljubiša Malenica

Source: Geopolitica

Read our Disclaimer/Legal Statement!

Donate to Support Us

We would like to ask you to consider a small donation to help our team keep working. We accept no advertising and rely only on you, our readers, to keep us digging the truth on history, global politics and international relations.

READ MORE!
Titoslavia: The National Questions and Interrepublican Boundaries
After WWII, the official state-sponsored myth, based on notorious lies and forged historical facts, of the anti-fascist combat and the liberation of Yugoslavia by Tito’s Partisans acquired a political life of its own until the 1990s.The official brainwashed dogma became the so-called National Liberation of Yugoslavia while the personal cult of Josip Broz Tito became framed on the propaganda that self-proclaimed “Marshall” of Yugoslavia (on November 29th, 1943 in Bosnian town of Jajce) was one of the most intelligent and ingenious national leaders of the anti-fascist coalition in Europe during the wartime.[i] However, in post-1945 Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia ...
READ MORE
Kosovostan Albanian Monstrous Crimes
Serbian girl Jovana was only 11 years old when Albanian terrorists captured, beaten and detained her together with rest of the family. They were taken in a camp in the village of Klecka, Lipljan, along with her mother and grandmother. The camp was under direct rule and control of Fatmir Limaj (acquitted by the Hague cangaroo court) and Hashim Thaci. Hasim Taci used to visit the camp. One day little Jovana was taken by the Albanian KLA bandits, Luan and Bekim Mazrreku, who, before the eyes of her mother and grandmother raped the eleven years old girl. They tortured her, cutting her body ...
READ MORE
President B. Clinton’s Kosovostan
Saudi Prince Turki Al-Faisal speaking at the 2012 Clinton Global Initiative thanks former U.S. President Bill Clinton for “delivering Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo into Muslim hands and for near deliverance — within a hundred meters — of Palestine from occupation.” Originally published on 2012-11-15 Author: Meira Svirsky Source: Clarion Project Origins of images: Facebook, Twitter, Wikimedia, Wikipedia, Flickr, Google, Imageinjection & Pinterest. Read our Disclaimer/Legal Statement! Donate to Support Us We would like to ask you to consider a small donation to help our team keep working. We accept no advertising and rely only on you, our readers, to keep us digging the truth on history, global politics ...
READ MORE
President of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) Ramush Haradinaj, a Kosovo Albanian former guerilla commander who served briefly as prime minister, speaks during an interview with Reuters at the AAK headquarters in Pristina December 4, 2012. REUTERS/Hazir Reka
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is calling for an “impartial investigation” into grisly reports by a European investigative commission alleging that Kosovo government officials were involved in the trade of human organs.­In an exhaustive report released by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) in December, it was alleged that Serbian detainees of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) were kidnapped and murdered by Kosovo Albanians so their organs could be sold on the black market.The report says the crimes occurred after the Kosovo War ended in 1999.These shocking allegations came on the heels of a two-year investigation into a ...
READ MORE
Islam: Beheadings, Decapitation and Butchering
Kosovo after June 1999: Serbian Orthodox church destroyed by Kosovo Albanian MuslimsThe horrible pictures of the atrocious ritual beheadings of ICS, the Islamic Caliphate State, on the Internet, have shown an ugly face of Western leaders, avoiding and denying what is crystal clear, as if these heinous acts are not Islamic, and continuing their march of folly as if Islam is a religion of peace and compassion; as if ICS and Qaeda are in fact not Islamic; and as if these and other Islamic terrorist organization hijacked Islam, in order to smear it and de-legitimized its presence in the West.However, ...
READ MORE
A Road of ISIL Jihadists
Muslim populated states of the South-East Europe are the reservoirs of the ISIL Jihadist fighters in the Middle East: Albania, Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia. All of these states are the marionettes of the US. This road map was originally published with the article in one Albania's newspapers in Tirana in October 2015 Read our Disclaimer/Legal Statement! Donate to Support Us We would like to ask you to consider a small donation to help our team keep working. We accept no advertising and rely only on you, our readers, to keep us digging the truth on history, global politics and international relations.  
READ MORE
The Mladic NATO-Style Trial at the ICTY: A Stain on Civilization
“All that is a lie. This is a NATO-style trial.”The defiant words of General Mladic to the judges of the NATO controlled ad hoc war crimes tribunal for Yugoslavia rang out loud and clear the day they pretended to convict him. He could have added ‘but history will absolve me” and a lot more but he was thrown out of the room by the chief judge, Orie, in his condescending style, as if he was dealing to a truant schoolboy, instead of a man falsely accused of crimes he did not commit.The Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, echoed the ...
READ MORE
Kosovo: Honoring Nazis and the SS
UN negotiator on Kosovo Martti Ahtisaari wanted to honor and commemorate Finnish Nazi SS troops in 1999 when he was the President of Finland. He wanted to have the Finnish taxpayers and the Finnish government fund and finance the construction of a plaque in the Ukraine to commemorate the deaths of Finnish Nazi SS troops killed during Operation Barbarossa. Ahtisaari is not, alone, however, in seeking to honor and celebrate the legacy of Nazis and the SS. Kosovo: German recruitment of Albanians for the SS Nazi Skanderbeg Division Kosovo Albanians have similarly honored and commemorated the legacy of Nazis and the SS. ...
READ MORE
Who Are the Albanians?
Vladislav B. Sotirovic, “Who are the Albanians? The Illyrian Anthroponomy and the Ethnogenesis of the Albanians – A Challenge to Regional Security”, Serbian Studies: Journal of the North American Society for Serbian Studies, Vol. 26, 2012, № 1−2, ISSN 0742-3330, 2015, Slavica Publishers, Indiana University, Bloomington, USA, pp. 45−76 Origins of images: Facebook, Twitter, Wikimedia, Wikipedia, Flickr, Google, Imageinjection & Pinterest. Read our Disclaimer/Legal Statement! Donate to Support Us We would like to ask you to consider a small donation to help our team keep working. We accept no advertising and rely only on you, our readers, to keep us digging the truth on ...
READ MORE
U.S. Airstrikes are Wiping Out Entire Families in Yemen and Syria
The United States is killing entire families in Raqqa, Syria, and enabling Saudi Arabia to do the same in Yemen.In June of this year, the U.S. led a campaign to retake the city of Raqqa from ISIS fighters while the Russian and Syrian militaries were also attempting to do the same thing. In the first week of fighting, U.N. war crimes investigators warned that the U.S. had already killed 300 civilians from air strikes alone in that seven day period.Rather than heed that warning, the U.S. has continued the same strategy of pounding Raqqa into the ground despite the likelihood of civilian casualties. Pentagon ...
READ MORE
Bosnia, Cyprus and Kosovo: America and Islamism in the Balkans
The conflicts that engulfed the former Yugoslavia still remain unresolved in the political arena and open to Western political shenanigans and covert meddling from Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Bosnia and Kosovo.  Orthodox Christianity faces many attacks and only a naïve individual would claim that America and the hands of Turkey and Saudi Arabia are clean. Central Bosnia in 2016: Flags of the ISIS America and other Western nations did little to stop Turkey invading Cyprus in 1974 and creating a de-facto nation and altering the demographics of northern Cyprus and using this area for military purposes. Irrespective of the rights and wrongs ...
READ MORE
Bosnia and Kosovo: Radical Islam, Organ Trafficking and Western Mainstream Media Bias
The conflict that raged throughout the former Yugoslavia was met by a wall of silence when it came to important issues. These important issues apply to America and the United Kingdom supporting Islamists in a brutal civil war in Bosnia and then installing a new nation by ignoring international law in Kosovo. Also, is it credible to believe that the vast majority of major news agencies and national governments did not know about thousands of Islamists in Europe who were sent to slit the throats and behead Orthodox Christians? After all, if the reality of what really happened in Bosnia and ...
READ MORE
The Forgotten Orthodox Christians of Bosnia and Kosovo
I come from a member state of the European Union which is meant to uphold the rights of all religions, political ideologies, acknowledge national and cultural rights, and is meant to spread “European brotherhood.”  However, it appears that this does not apply to the Orthodox Christians of Bosnia and Kosovo respectively because not only have they been abandoned but outside Islamic powers are stepping up their Islamization agenda in both Bosnia and Kosovo. In Kosovo the de-Christianization of the Orthodox Christian community continues and hundreds of Orthodox Christian churches have been destroyed but little was done to protect this community.  It ...
READ MORE
Srebrenica 1992-95: Another Genocide over Serbian Population
In nineties, Srebrenica was the center of terrorist activities – « Jihad », the Muslim 28th Division under the command of Naser Oric Monster, with the participation of  mujahedeens  operated here, covered by UN and US forces. In 1993, The Embassy of Bosnia & Herzegovina, in Vienna, even issued the Bosnian passport to Osama bin Laden! Thus, Bin Laden became honored Bosnian citizen, under  blessings of the Bill Clinton administration. The US diplomacy is still supporting the pro-Muslims’ politics in the Balkans. Bil Laden was killed, but his mujaheedins can still freely work in Kosovo, Bosnia and Macedonia. How is that ...
READ MORE
Edward S. Herman: The Politics of the Srebrenica Massacre
“Srebrenica” has become the symbol of evil, and specifically Serb evil. It is commonly described as “a horror without parallel in the history of Europe since the Second World War” in which there was a cold-blooded execution “of at least 8,000 Muslim men and boys.” [1] The events in question took place in or near the Bosnian town of Srebrenica between July 10 and 19, 1995, as the Bosnian Serb army (BSA) occupied that town and fought with and killed many Bosnian Muslims, unknown numbers dying in the fighting and by executions. There is no question but that there were ...
READ MORE
Bosnia-Herzegovina ISIS in the 1990s: A Short Documentary Movie by the SKY News
Video documentary movie on the first ISIS in Europe in the Islamic Caliphate of Bosnia-Herzegovina, 1992-1995.This movie is made by the British SKY NEWS after the civil war in Bosnia-Herzegovina.Similar documentary movies on the ISIS Bosnia-Herzegovina made by the Bosnian Serbs were never shown to the Western audience.The duration of the movie is 8 min. and 17 sec.In the movie are presented and future Al-Qaeda Mujahedeen holy fighters.From the movie is clear what was the real nature of the civil war in Bosnia-Herzegovina in the 1990s.All copyrights reserved by the SKY NEWS.Origins of images: Facebook, Twitter, Wikimedia, Wikipedia, Flickr, Google, ...
READ MORE
The Memorandum (1804) by the Karlovci Metropolitan Stevan Stratimirovic
The goal of this article is to investigate and describe the text of one very significant, but so far forgotten, document and historical source upon the question on Serbian liberation from the Ottoman sway and national unification. The document was written in 1804 during the first months of the First Serbian Uprising against the Ottoman oppression [about the uprising see in Petrovich 1976; Vucinich 1982; Temperley 1969; Ђорђевић 1956]. Introduction The Serbian nation was divided at the dawn of the 19th century by the borders of Ottoman pashaliks and by the state frontiers that separated the lands under Ottoman from those under ...
READ MORE
Past all Reason: The Vietnam War
Well-intentioned and artfully executed, The Vietnam War—Ken Burns and Lynn Novick’s 10-part, 18-hour-long documentary series on PBS—is not history, but rather story-telling and remembrance. Balanced, exhaustive, and relentlessly solemn, it glides along the surface of things, even when that surface is crowded with arrogance, miscalculation, deceit, and bloodletting on an epic scale.According to one promotional trailer prepared for the series, “In war there is no single truth.” Embedded within every war (as in other forms of human endeavor) are multiple truths—some of them trivial, others very important indeed. The purpose of history is to unearth and engage with those truths ...
READ MORE
The “Catalonian Question”
The Catalan identity and Catalonia Catalans are the people who live in the territories of Spain in the autonomous-historical region called Catalonia. Their significance for the Spanish inner politics can be understood as the best if we know that Catalonia (Catalunya) is being since 1975 the most politically and economically powerful autonomous self-governed region in the Kingdom of Spain – during the last 20 years, basically, a kind of “a state within the state”. As a matter of fact, Catalans are the most integrated ethnohistorical groups of Spain together with Basques.[1]What makes Catalans so interlinked could be understood if we know ...
READ MORE
NATO’s War on Yugoslavia and the Expulsion of Serbs from Kosovo
In the period before the 1999 NATO attack on Yugoslavia, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) waged a campaign to secede and establish an independent Kosovo dominated by Albanians and purged of every other ethnic group. In October 1998, KLA spokesman Bardhyl Mahmuti spelled the KLA’s vision: “We will never change our position. The independence of Kosovo is the only solution…We cannot live together [with Serbs]. That is excluded.” Once NATO’s war came to an end, the KLA set about driving out of Kosovo every non-Albanian and every pro-Yugoslav Albanian it could lay its hands on. The KLA left in its wake ...
READ MORE
Titoslavia: The National Questions and Interrepublican Boundaries
Kosovostan Albanian Monstrous Crimes
President B. Clinton’s Kosovostan
Russia Calls for Investigation into Human-Organ Trade Ring in Kosovo
Islam: Beheadings, Decapitation and Butchering
A Road of ISIL Jihadists
The Mladic NATO-Style Trial at the ICTY: A Stain on Civilization
Kosovo: Honoring Nazis and the SS
Who Are the Albanians?
U.S. Airstrikes are Wiping Out Entire Families in Yemen and Syria
Bosnia, Cyprus and Kosovo: America and Islamism in the Balkans
Bosnia and Kosovo: Radical Islam, Organ Trafficking and Western Mainstream Media Bias
The Forgotten Orthodox Christians of Bosnia and Kosovo
Srebrenica 1992-95: Another Genocide over Serbian Population
Edward S. Herman: The Politics of the Srebrenica Massacre
Bosnia-Herzegovina ISIS in the 1990s: A Short Documentary Movie by the SKY News
The Memorandum (1804) by the Karlovci Metropolitan Stevan Stratimirovic
Past all Reason: The Vietnam War
The “Catalonian Question”
NATO’s War on Yugoslavia and the Expulsion of Serbs from Kosovo
Global-Politics.eu

Written by Global-Politics.eu

SHORT LEGAL DISCLAIMER: The website’s owner & editor-in-chief has no official position on any issue published at this website. The views of the authors presented at this website do not necessarily coincide with the opinion of the owner & editor-in-chief of the website. The contents of all material (articles, books, photos, videos…) are of sole responsibility of the authors. The owner & editor-in-chief of this website is not morally, scientifically or legally responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect statement in the contents of all material found on this website. The owner & editor-in-chief of this website is not responsible for the content of external internet sites. No advertising, government or corporate funding for the functioning of this website. The owner & editor-in-chief and authors are not morally, scientifically or legally responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect statement in the text and material found on the website www.global-politics.eu

Website: http://www.global-politics.eu