EAEU and Serbia – Mutually Beneficial Cooperation

Hits: 896

On the 30th September 2016, formal negotiations related to the creation of free trade zone between Serbia and Eurasian Economic Union started. Lasting throughout the entire 2017, indications of progress were given by Marko Čadež, president of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, during his participation in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). This new free trade agreement is supposed to replace older bilateral FTAs which Serbia has with Russian Federation, Belarus, and Kazakhstan and expand the market for its products to Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.

Vietnam is an illustrative example of benefits which free trade agreement with EAEU can bring. Free Trade Agreement between the EAEU countries and Vietnam entered into force on October 5, 2016. Ten months later, exports of goods from the Union countries to Vietnam increased by 32% compared to the same period in 2015-2016. Supplies of Vietnamese products to the markets of the EAEU grew by 28%. Given that EAEU is involved in negotiations with other countries, such as India, Singapore, Israel and Iran, Belgrade cooperation with the Eurasian block has potential to lead to the stronger establishment of Serbian merchandise and companies in the fast-growing markets of ASEAN and other Asian countries. Furthermore, once achieved, agreement with EAEU will provide Serbian firms with a venue for joint enterprises with companies from the Union, in a similar fashion to those from Vietnam.

In 2016, Russian International Affairs Council published a paper regarding free trade zone between Serbia and EAEU.This document offers three possible scenarios of development. In the first one, Serbia follows a one-sided European vector of development and refuses FTA with the EAEU. The second scenario is the one in which Serbia and Eurasian Economic Union are temporary allies. Serbia will conclude an agreement FTA with the Eurasian block and extract dividends from this agreement, until the moment to join the EU comes. After joining the EU, Eurasian integration will lose its importance.A third scenario, and the most optimistic one for Serbia, envisions the country as a bridge between Europe and Eurasia. This scenario provides Serbia with conditions for diverse multilateral cooperationwith both European and Asian countries and political blocks, while proving beneficial for not only the country’s economic considerations but security ones as well.

Questionable Path of the EU accession

In contrast to possibilities presented by FTA with EAEU, the process of Serbia accession to EU, especially Chapter 30 which details the foreign affairs obligations, seems to have a more crippling then positive effect on Serbia. According to a statementbyForum of Economists analyst, BorislavBorović, to media outlet Sputnik,Serbia remains one of few countries without cost-benefit analysis of its accession to EU and, thus, is unaware of expenses, gains and costsresulting from this process. In light of this fact, the possibility that Serbia might be better offoutside the EU remains a valid point. What is known, however, is that Serbia, upon closure of Chapter 30, will be forced to withdraw from all free trade agreementsit’s currently engaged in, such as CEFTA, FTAs with Russia, Turkey, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Only FTA remaining will be the one with EU.

Another important issue related to Chapter 30 is the question of sanctions against Russia. Serbia is one of few countries in Europe which did not introduce sanctions to Russian Federation in 2014.The current stance of Serbia in this regard has very strong popular support and proved beneficial for Serbia in terms of trade and economy. That would have to change if Belgrade is to conclude negotiations with the EU or even close the chapter in questions. All conditions from this part of the accession negotiations are not in the interest of Serbia given that they, if implemented, will have negative economic and political consequences. Report for 2016, made by the Republic Statistics Institute, indicates that 64,4% of total Serbian economic exchange is with the EU members, while the remaining percentage is mostly with other partners Serbia has FTAs with.If we take these facts into consideration,negative effects for Serbian economy seem inevitable. For long-term prospects, it is questionable is further integration into EU economic system beneficial for Serbia given such course of action would only cause larger dependence on EU, thus decreasing diplomatic maneuvering space and jeopardizing economic and political security and sovereignty of Serbia. Diversification of its export and import partners, which would lead to reducedeffectiveness of possible political pressure, is in the best interest of Serbia.

European Union, true to an often displayed policy of double standards, has for several years insisted, especially in theenergy sector, on diversification of partners, but would remove the same option for Belgrade. Furthermore, Germany, the most important EU member state, has no qualms about cooperating with Russia within „Nord Stream“ project.This example illustrates that even member countries within EU take notice of their own interests and act accordingly. Serbia should follow suit. Another important issue is the future of the EU itself in light of Brexitand socio-political changes Europe is currently experiencing. It is questionable how prudent is it to insist upon political goal, now almost twenty years old, in the rapidly changing international community.

Public Opinion

Survey of public opinion in Serbia, from 2015, has shown a clear decline in support for European integrations, on one side, and rising support for cooperation with Russia, and other Asian countries, on the other. Percentage of those who supported EU integrations dropped from 76% in 2009 to 49% in 2015 while those who refused such processes rose from 19% to 44% in the same period. Interestingly enough, 35% of those who would vote against EU accession express their “lack of belief in values EU integration brings”, 20% are “fed up with pressure Serbia endures in order to enter EU” while 32% cite examples of “Greece and Spain as evidence that EU membership will not bring anything good” to Serbia. Unlike EAEU, European Union is not only economic block but also a political and ideological project which disregards national particularities and traditions of those who would join.

Survey touched upon the issue of Kosovo and Metohija itself. In a case where Serbia is required to recognize Kosovo, 57% of those questioned responded that Serbia should refuse to accept even if it meant staying out of EU.94% of those questioned expressed an opinion that interests of Serbia are best served by maintaining strong relations with Russia. China comes in second place, with 89%, while Germany is third with 80%.

Forced to choose just one country, Russia, with 63%, was again the most favorable partner for those questioned.

From results of the survey in question, several trends are apparent. One of them is, by now, traditional popular support for cooperation with Russian Federation and organizations it leads such as EAEU and CSTO. The second trend is growing Euroscepticism within Serbian society. This is not so much a result of EU economic policies, as of objectiveness lacking approach to issues of nation, justice, society and politics in the Balkans since the disappearance of Yugoslavia.

Conclusion

The sovereignty of Serbia and security of Serbian people, especially those living in the occupied province of Kosovo and Metohija are political issues underlining the economic narrative of joining either EU or EAEU. Stark divide in positions regarding this question is noticeable between EU on one side, and Russia and China at the other.Projections indicate Serbia might become EU member by 2025 or even 2030. As Serbia moves ever closer to eventual membership in European Union, it remains unknown what will be the cost of such decision and is such political move beneficial for Serbian state. Will Serbia be forced to recognize Kosovo and allow its access to UN? On 21st January, French ambassador in Serbia, Mondoloni, reiterated that there can be no integration within EU without, how he euphemistically called it, agreement on Kosovo.  Serbian population is strongly against it given that direct or indirect, forced or otherwise, recognition of Kosovo by Serbia would legitimize NATO aggression against Yugoslavia in 1999.

However, it is now clear that European Union is not the only supranational project anymore.

As organizations such as EAEU increase their activism, offering economic cooperation without ideological and political baggage, EU might find itself in a position of an outdated concept burdened by a complicated set of laws and power struggle between the supranational EU institutions and national governments.Examples of this struggle are already apparent in the dispute over issue of migrants between Višegrad Group and Brussels and over the issue of judicial reforms between Brussels and Poland. If faced with pressure from Brussels which undermines national interests, even members of the EU might seek more flexible alternatives.

Without losing from sight that every political actor has interests, it is clear which approach to cooperation is more beneficial for Serbia itself. While European Union seeks to integrate countries through a complex system of dependencies and supranational acquisition of national prerogatives, Eurasian Economic Union is focused on the economy and guided by the principle of the sovereign equality of states, the need for unconditional respect for the rule of constitutional rights and freedoms of man and national. Faced with its own particular set of challenges, it would be most prudent for Serbia to forgo any kind of permanent obligation, such as membership in EU, for the sake of more liberty in dealing with its own issues and the wider specter of possible partners on the international level.


Originally published on 2018-05-02

Author: Ljubiša Malenica

Source: Geopolitica

Read our Disclaimer/Legal Statement!

Donate to Support Us

We would like to ask you to consider a small donation to help our team keep working. We accept no advertising and rely only on you, our readers, to keep us digging the truth on history, global politics and international relations.

READ MORE!
FYROM Should be Named Paionia as it was 2,500 Years Ago
The name of the modern land-locked country north of Greece, with its capital at Skopje, has returned to the news. It is officially called FYROM, but embedded in that name is “Macedonia” which is a reflection of the longstanding attempt to take over the modern Greek province of Macedonia as reflected in maps used in many places, including schools. It is clear that this naming implies territorial ambitions which have long been understood (http://macedonia-evidence.org/documentation.html). If that threat to the stability of the southern Balkans is to be stopped permanently, I suggest that the following must happen: 1) the country should be named ...
READ MORE
Serbs Survive in Ghettos in the Heart of Europe: The “Republic of Kosovo”, a Criminal Entity
After 19 years since a part of the international community, under the auspices of NATO and the US, took control over the Serbian province of Kosovo and Metohija, following two ethnic pogroms of the Serbs and non-Albanians occurred in 1999 and in 2004, which resulted in ethnic cleansing of around 250 000 Serbs and other non Albanians, the rest of Serbian population still survive in ghettos across the territory of self-proclaimed independent Republic of Kosovo.Destroyed 14th-century Serbian Orthodox church Samodreža in Kosovo by Muslim Albanians in March 2004 The Self proclaimed Republic of Kosovo, as a creation of the USA/NATO joint ...
READ MORE
Je Sius La Serbie 1999!
Read our Disclaimer/Legal Statement! Donate to Support Us We would like to ask you to consider a small donation to help our team keep working. We accept no advertising and rely only on you, our readers, to keep us digging the truth on history, global politics and international relations.   Save Save
READ MORE
Rape and War: Bosnian Muslim Rapes at the Celebici Camp
War President of Bosnia-Herzegovina Alija Izetbegovic - author of jihadist "Islamic Declaration" in 1970 One of the most outrageous and heinous hoaxes and Hitlerian Big Lies perpetrated by the US and Western media during the Bosnian civil war of 1992-1995 was that Bosnian Serbs had used rape as an “instrument of war”. In order to discredit the Bosnian Serbs, they were accused of committing mass rapes against Bosnian Muslim women, in “rape camps” and “rape motels”. Even the United Nations commander in Bosnia, Canadian Major-General Lewis MacKenzie, a veteran of eight UN peacekeeping missions, was accused of committing rapes against Bosnian ...
READ MORE
Who Are the Serbs?
Serbs: Basic factsEthnic location: Central and western part of the Balkan Peninsula (South-East Europe)Population: 10.2 million (1.8 million Serbs live outside their ethnic location)Language: SerbianReligion: Eastern Orthodox Christians1 Introduction Serbs belong to the Southslavonic group of Indo-European peoples. As their tradition, culture, language, beliefs, and customs show, the ethnogenesis of Serbs goes far back into the past. Serbian ancestors, Protoslavs and Old Serbs, were described in the 5th century BC by Herodotus, under the names of Neuri and Budini, living north of the Danube in the region between Dniepar and north-eastern Carpathian Mountains.The first mention of the name “Serbs” appears ...
READ MORE
Titoslavia: The National Questions and Interrepublican Boundaries
After WWII, the official state-sponsored myth, based on notorious lies and forged historical facts, of the anti-fascist combat and the liberation of Yugoslavia by Tito’s Partisans acquired a political life of its own until the 1990s.The official brainwashed dogma became the so-called National Liberation of Yugoslavia while the personal cult of Josip Broz Tito became framed on the propaganda that self-proclaimed “Marshall” of Yugoslavia (on November 29th, 1943 in Bosnian town of Jajce) was one of the most intelligent and ingenious national leaders of the anti-fascist coalition in Europe during the wartime.[i] However, in post-1945 Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia ...
READ MORE
Historical Origins of the State: Barbarians at the Gate
War has indeed become perpetual and peace no longer even a fleeting wish nor a distant memory. We have become habituated to the rumblings of war and the steady drum beat of propaganda about war’s necessity and the noble motives that inspire it. We will close hospitals. We will close schools. We will close libraries and museums. We will sell off our parklands and water supply. People will sleep on the streets and go hungry. The war machine will go on. What are we to do? The following text is Part III of  a broader analysis entitled War and the State: Business ...
READ MORE
Kosovo and Metohija – Return to UNSC Resolution 1244
We hear that Kosovo and Metohija’s frozen conflict is not conducive to Serbia’s interests, but nobody notes that Serbia stands to lose even more if negotiations under EU auspices continue under the same pattern and trend. Judging by the ongoing course wherein Serbia has been only delivering concessions and Prishtina’s clique only gaining control over the whole Province, Serbia may end up delivering irrevocably all her rights and interests and receiving nothing in return. Except promises of EU membership by 2027 as “indicative” year! Rarely is heard that such a EU/USA deal “territory (of Kosovo and Metohija) for EU membership” would ...
READ MORE
US Foreign Policy: Hegemony or Stability, not Both
US foreign policy has for decades been predicated on achieving and maintaining global peace, security and stability. In reality, it has for over a century constituted an overreaching desire to achieve and maintain global hegemony. And where US efforts focus on achieving hegemony, division and destruction follow. From the Middle East to Eastern Europe, and from Southeast Asia to the Korean Peninsula, US intervention politically or militarily all but guarantee escalating tensions, uncertain futures, socioeconomic instability and even armed conflict. The Middle East and North Africa   US efforts in the Middle East since the conclusion of the first World War have focused ...
READ MORE
What We Still haven’t Learned from the Vietnam War
Fifty years ago today, in 1967, nearly 100,000 Americans marched on Washington, DC, to protest the Vietnam War. In those days there was a mandatory draft in place, and the risk was very real that a young man just out of high school could quickly wind up 13,000 miles away, fighting an unseen enemy in jungles that didn’t need tanks or B-52 bombers to inflict fear. Worse yet was the possibility of going MIA or coming home in a body bag — just another expendable statistic in the great fight against communism. But even many of those who made it ...
READ MORE
President B. Clinton’s Kosovostan
Saudi Prince Turki Al-Faisal speaking at the 2012 Clinton Global Initiative thanks former U.S. President Bill Clinton for “delivering Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo into Muslim hands and for near deliverance — within a hundred meters — of Palestine from occupation.” Originally published on 2012-11-15 Author: Meira Svirsky Source: Clarion Project Origins of images: Facebook, Twitter, Wikimedia, Wikipedia, Flickr, Google, Imageinjection & Pinterest. Read our Disclaimer/Legal Statement! Donate to Support Us We would like to ask you to consider a small donation to help our team keep working. We accept no advertising and rely only on you, our readers, to keep us digging the truth on history, global politics ...
READ MORE
God and the Fascists
Origins of immages: Facebook, Twitter, Wikimedia, Wikipedia, Flickr, Google & Pinterest. Read our Disclaimer/Legal Statement! Donate to Support Us We would like to ask you to consider a small donation to help our team keep working. We accept no advertising and rely only on you, our readers, to keep us digging the truth on history, global politics and international relations.
READ MORE
Hidden Manipulators: Who is Behind the “Kosova Independence” Campaign?
The Balkans conflicts of the 1990s saw a massive revival and resurgence of US and Western media propaganda and infowar techniques. The “new” advocacy journalists recalled the “yellow journalism” of William Randolph Hearst, who helped induce the US to engage in the imperialistic or colonial war in Cuba in 1898, the Spanish-American War. This marked the emergence of the US as an expansionist global imperial and colonial power, like Britain, France, Spain, and Germany had been. Hearst was credited with manufacturing or “furnishing” the war in Cuba. Frederic Remington, his correspondent in Cuba, reported that nothing was happening in Cuba, that ...
READ MORE
Noel Malcolm: “Kosovo – A Short History”, 1999. A History Written With an Attempt to Support Albanian Territorial Claims in the Balkans (Third part)
Prof. Djordje Jankovic, Ph.DFaculty of PhilosophyBelgrade UniversityMiddle Ages in Noel Malcolm’s Kosovo: A Short History and Real Facts Before presenting the interpretations of the mediaeval past of Kosovo and Metohija in Noel Malcolm’s work, one should be aware of the tasks set by the author before writing the book. That way, the acrobatic handling of the evidence which he uses or does not use will become clearer. In the introductory text, ten pages long, he clearly presents his political and ideological position. They are as follows (p. XXXIV-XXXV): “Kosovo” is one of the cultural crossroads of Europe – which is wrong; ...
READ MORE
Western Intelligence Operation “Kosovo Liberation Army” Harvested Serbs’ Organs – The EU’s inquiry
An inquiry by the EU has found “compelling indications” that ten Serb captives had their body organs harvested for illegal trafficking during the 1998-99 Kosovo war. However, it wasn’t widespread and there will be no trial, the lead investigator said.The chief prosecutor Clint Williamson, who led the investigation, said there was no evidence of widespread organ harvesting, but that the crime had occurred a number of times.“There are compelling indications that this practice did occur on a very limited scale and that a small number of individuals were killed for the purpose of extracting and trafficking their organs,” he told ...
READ MORE
A Biography of Kurt Waldheim (Austria) – A Fourth U.N. Secretary-General
The U.N. Organization was established in 1945 for the very security reason – to preserve the peace in the world. We believe that the governmental bodies and administrative structures of the U.N. have to be composed by the proved democratically oriented politicians and magistrates but above all this requirement has to be applied to the post and function of the U.N. Secretary-General. Nevertheless, in the history of the U.N. there is at least one (extremely) problematic appointment to the post of the U.N. Secretary-General: Kurt Waldheim from Austria. On the official website of the U.N. about its fourth Secretary-General one can ...
READ MORE
Croatia and Nazi Germany
While this excellent analysis by Srdja Trifkovic focuses on the “internal” history of Croatia, it is important to note that four days after Nazi Germany declared war on the United States, Hitler’s staunch ally the Independent State of Croatia (NDH) declared war on both the United Kingdom and on the United States on December 14, 1941. What makes this especially significant is that less than three years later, on April 16, 1944, which was Easter Sunday for the Serbian Orthodox, the Anglo-American forces bombed Belgrade, the capital of their loyal and devoted ally Serbia, even though there was no strategic ...
READ MORE
American Capitalism is Based on Plunder
American capitalism is based on plunder. With the continental USA plundered, American capitalism hoped to continue enriching itself by plundering Russia as it did under Yeltsin, carefully including the Russian “Atlanticist Integrationists” in the spoils in order to have support from the liberal, progressive forces in Russia for stripping Russia of its assets. But Putin more or less put a halt to the American/Israeli rape of Russia, although it still continues through the neoliberal economics that Harvard brainwashed into the Russian central bank and economics profession. Brainwashed Russian economists are the main reason Washington is able to punish a powerful ...
READ MORE
Aftermath of the US-NATO War on Yugoslavia: The Unspoken Impacts of Radioactive Depleted Uranium Ammunition
More than a decade and a half after the US-NATO- under international law illegal – war aggression against Yugoslavia using highly toxic and radioactive uranium projectiles, the enormity of this war crime becomes clear: In Serbia, aggressive cancer among young and old has reached epidemic proportions. The suffering of the people cries out to heaven. Particularly affected is the south of Serbia and Kosovo. According to the Serbian Ministry of Health, every day a child suffers from cancer. The entire country is contaminated. By harming the genetic material (DNA) generation after generation,  malformed children will be born. Knowingly and willfully, a genocide ...
READ MORE
The Collapsing of Yugoslavia (1981‒1990)
Tito’s policy in the 1970s of the so-called “encourage and suppress” for the sake to struggle against politically undesirable and threatening ethnic nationalisms especially the Croat and the Serb ones appeared to be incoherent one. In another words, while some ethnic nationalisms and their ideologies were considered to be dangerous to the system and, therefore, were suppressed and their advocates were jailed or banned from employment[i] (the case, for instance, of the Serbian dissident professors from Belgrade University), other nationalisms, supposed to be non-dangerous for the regime were encouraged by the local Communist elites (for instance, the Albanian nationalism in ...
READ MORE
FYROM Should be Named Paionia as it was 2,500 Years Ago
Serbs Survive in Ghettos in the Heart of Europe: The “Republic of Kosovo”, a Criminal Entity
Je Sius La Serbie 1999!
Rape and War: Bosnian Muslim Rapes at the Celebici Camp
Who Are the Serbs?
Titoslavia: The National Questions and Interrepublican Boundaries
Historical Origins of the State: Barbarians at the Gate
Kosovo and Metohija – Return to UNSC Resolution 1244
US Foreign Policy: Hegemony or Stability, not Both
What We Still haven’t Learned from the Vietnam War
President B. Clinton’s Kosovostan
God and the Fascists
Hidden Manipulators: Who is Behind the “Kosova Independence” Campaign?
Noel Malcolm: “Kosovo – A Short History”, 1999. A History Written With an Attempt to Support Albanian Territorial Claims in the Balkans (Third part)
Western Intelligence Operation “Kosovo Liberation Army” Harvested Serbs’ Organs – The EU’s inquiry
A Biography of Kurt Waldheim (Austria) – A Fourth U.N. Secretary-General
Croatia and Nazi Germany
American Capitalism is Based on Plunder
Aftermath of the US-NATO War on Yugoslavia: The Unspoken Impacts of Radioactive Depleted Uranium Ammunition
The Collapsing of Yugoslavia (1981‒1990)
Policraticus

Written by Policraticus

SHORT LEGAL DISCLAIMER: The website’s owner & editor-in-chief has no official position on any issue published at this website. The views of the authors presented at this website do not necessarily coincide with the opinion of the owner & editor-in-chief of the website. The contents of all material (articles, books, photos, videos…) are of sole responsibility of the authors. The owner & editor-in-chief of this website is not morally, scientifically or legally responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect statement in the contents of all material found on this website. The owner & editor-in-chief of this website is not responsible for the content of external internet sites. No advertising, government or corporate funding for the functioning of this website. The owner & editor-in-chief and authors are not morally, scientifically or legally responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect statement in the text and material found on the website www.global-politics.eu

Website: http://www.global-politics.eu